I understand your argument, Egor, yet I remain, for the most part, unconvinced.  Every single Democratic mouthpiece in this country is now saying the "experience" argument against Obama is off the table due to the pick by McCain of a totally inexperienced VP in Palin. McCain has thrown away his best argument against Obama.  His surge in recent polls was, in my opinion, caused by the realization by the American voters that Obama is a good guy, but not experienced enough to be president yet. McCain has thrown all that away in a flash.  I think picking Palin is a huge mistake. 

Now, after watching the news last night, I was a little bit more settled about her, but her inexperience is glaringly obvious.

Further, the reason I'm not totally buying into your explanation is because I think the Republican conservative base will vote Republican in any case anyway, due to the fact that the Democratic ticket is now so liberal that the social conservative has no other place to go except the Republican party.  Sitting this one out is not an option and the base knows it.

IMHO, the swing vote is in the same delimma.  Truth is the Democratic Party position on abortion, gay marriage, energy policy (i.e. drilling and development of other energy resources), taxes, and general big government interference in business, is not very appealing to most swing voters who for the most part are in the middle.  There simply isn't a conservative wing, or even a Moderate  wing, of the Democratic Party to join.  Your either a liberal in their party, or your voice is drowned out.   Remember, Egor, what Joseph Lieberman had to do?  He was a Democrat and became an Independent who caucuses with Democrats because he was a Moderate to conservative person in a party of Liberals.  What is a swing voter to do?  They can either vote for a liberal, or take a chance on a moderate Republican.  I think, in the end, they would have gone with moderate Republican (evidence last 5 elections including two for moderate Democrat Clinton) due to the fact that Obama is a liberal.

So, therefore, I think McCain traded his best argument against Obama being President for appeasing a base and swing vote that was going to vote for him anyway, due to lack of options.

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Make each day count to improve yourself and those around you

I think you make good points, and you may end up being right..  I think some of this stuff depends on the current polling - If McCain was seriously behind, I think he would have gone with someone else, but i still think the 3 you mentioned earlier were out of the question all along, and no matter what. 

Part of what I like about McCain is that he is less political and more intuitive in his decisionmaking.  He hates Romney, thinks he is a scumbag, and we all know that.  While that may not matter to most politicians, I think part of McCain's appeal, is that it matters to him.  Giuliani and Lieberman, are social liberals compared to McCain. He respects them and is willing to work with them to get *** done, but do not mistake that for wanting them for VP.   You do make a good point, one i've made also - is that people try too hard to appease the base which presumably is in the bag no matter what, and can be ignored.  I do not think this argument has an infinite scope, in this instance the difference between Bush's approval rating and people currently polling for McCain is HUGE.  I presume the majority of these people cannot clearly state what the difference between the two would be as far as policy, and are simply doing what you describe - picking the lesser of evils. 

While we can safely say they are probably not voting for Obama, It is arguable what percentage of these people with low levels of excitement will show up at the polls at all. It is most definitely not 100%, and with the recent elections and current polls being soooo close, this truly matters to Republican strategists.  They need 100% of their base, and not just to show up, but to heavily engage in excitement-generating, grass roots internet movements/blogging, and get-out-the-vote efforts.  Those things would not happen with an already centrist McCain, picking a VP to the left of himself.  He is already seen as borderline sellout in conservative circles.

And last thing.  McCain does not intend to die.  I admire that in people .  But to be serious, if he dies say in 2010, his policies will now continue unfettered.  And everyone knows this now. With Giuliani or Lieberman, they wouldn't have.. Remember what matters most to social conservatives - judges.  Otherwise there may be no point in voting...  And that is how McCain can lose.

 

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"Я это понимаю на рациональном уровне, но не могу принять на эмоциональном" --Бизнесмен Борис Березовский

me with Egor here, good choice, plus she's kind of nice looking, likes gun's !

McCain will win this election!

Which is good, means there will be no war with Russia - we'll live !!!

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- Независимость - это когда в 20-й раз наступаешь на одни и те же грабли, а русские уже ни при чем....

oooops......

 

Palin was member of party calling for vote on Alaskan secession from US

Revelations about McCain's running mate for vice-president raise questions about his selection

 

New revelations about the Republican vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin — including her membership of a party that wants Alaskans to vote on becoming a separate country — are raising questions about how thoroughly John McCain's campaign vetted her background before adding her to the ticket.

Palin was a member of the Alaskan Independence party (AIP) before becoming an elected Republican official, according to party members, and recorded a video message for the AIP convention this year. The AIP's chief goal is securing Alaska a vote on seceding from the US, a goal that party leaders believe the state was denied before it became part of the US almost 50 years ago.

Yet it is the AIP's motto, "Alaska First, Alaska Always", that may cause the most trouble for McCain. The Republican's campaign slogan this year is "Country First".

At the convention where Palin's video was played, the AIP vice-chairman, George Clark, told the audience that she was an AIP member before getting her first political post as mayor of the small town of Wasilla, Alaska.

"But you get along to go along — she eventually joined the Republican party, where she had all kinds of problems with their ethics, and well, I won't go into that," Clark said. "She also had about an 80% approval rating, and is pretty well sympathetic to her former membership."

Palin suggested in a July interview with CNBC news that she would insist on making Alaskan issues a high priority before agreeing to serve as a vice-presidential candidate. "We want to make sure that that VP slot would be a fruitful type of position, especially for Alaskans, and for the things we're trying to accomplish up here for the rest of the US, before I can even start addressing that question," she said.

In response to the AIP flap, the McCain camp denied that Palin was a party member and released voter registration documents that showed her affiliating with Republicans. "If the Alaska Independence Party at some point taught Governor Palin their secret handshake, there is no record of it," McCain aide Michael Goldfarb wrote on the campaign's website. "Otherwise, the only relevant criterion for membership in a party is registration -- and Palin has never been a member of the AIP.

Intense media scrutiny of Palin since she became McCain's running mate four days ago has led to speculation that the Republican party failed to fully examine her background. In addition to the pregnancy of Palin's 17-year-old unmarried daughter, Bristol, several other disclosures threaten to throw the McCain camp into turmoil.

Palin has promoted her independence from Alaska's powerful senior senator, Ted Stevens, who is facing seven criminal charges in Washington. But she served for two years as a director for one of his political groups that was able to raise unlimited money from corporate patrons.

Palin faced pressure to resign as mayor of Wasilla in 1997 after she fired the city police chief for not fully supporting her agenda, leading to a lawsuit for breach of contract.

In Alaska, Palin faces an ethics investigation into whether she abused her office by firing the public safety commissioner, who refused to intervene in a messy divorce case involving her sister. Palin has hired an attorney to help her handle the case, leading to another round of embarrassing press coverage.

McCain's spokesman, Tucker Eskew, defended the selection: "This legal defence is neither new nor uncommon nor at all political. It is a matter of her job and is not recent and it is not related to her selection on the McCain-Palin ticket." 

 

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Leah:

I do eat fish, depending on where it lived and how it was caught

just saw that - how is that makes any difference ??????

how can anyone eating fish be called vegetarian ???

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- Независимость - это когда в 20-й раз наступаешь на одни и те же грабли, а русские уже ни при чем....

There are 3 kinds of voters -

the brainwashed who are gonna vote for their  'party' no matter what.

The independent thinkers who are gonna vote for the best candidate.

And then, Egor, who is gonna vote for McCain.  I still don't get it!

lol

You hated Bush. But you want to vote for McCain.  I don't get it.

McCain has already proved, with his first executive decision (Paulin), that he is unqualified to be President.

I say, give Obama a chance to shake up Washington.  If he fails, then yes, vote for the Far Right (coming soon I hope...lol)....

Come on....

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"Hearts will never be practical until they can be made unbreakable."

If Obama is elected, he will start war with Russia. Which means we all die.

You wanna die JB ??

 

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- Независимость - это когда в 20-й раз наступаешь на одни и те же грабли, а русские уже ни при чем....

I really don't believe that.  Republicans have always been the War Hawks.  Democrats have always been the domestically-oriented party.

Obama is all about a domestic agenda.  McCain is the 'old school' military thinking that believes in protecting the rest of the world.  huh?  Why do we always have to do that?

Nope.  Obama will cut back military, invest in an energy policy that makes Russian oil cost $20/barrel, and we win.

 

 

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"Hearts will never be practical until they can be made unbreakable."

James Bond:

 I really don't believe that. ...

Nope.  Obama will cut back military, invest in an energy policy that makes Russian oil cost $20/barrel, and we win.

 

JB:-)

Obama/Biden are going to contiue the militaristic policies of the last 15 years (the so-called Wolfowitz doctrine). The latest decision to give a billion $$ to the Georgian president to rebuild his army is supported by both the Dems and Gops. It was initiated by Biden.

Soviet elite has always found common ground with republicans - the sides could always agree. Both are hawkish, but they could always agree cuz their thinking process is similar.

I know, it seems counter-intuitive, but that's what international relashions are... 

 

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yep, dems only look more peacefull, in reality they killed more people than reps...

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- Независимость - это когда в 20-й раз наступаешь на одни и те же грабли, а русские уже ни при чем....

Pom/KGBman - examples please  Real-world factual examples to convince me.  I'm open-minded.

 

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"Hearts will never be practical until they can be made unbreakable."

i believe they are referring to the fact that every war America was involved prior to bushes administration was when democrats had the office.

on the issue though it seems McCain’s pick was only due to political expediency as Hannity would say (if McCain were not a republican) to with undecided Hillary supporters that are in substantial amounts: http://www.gallup.com/poll/109957/Obama-Gains-Among-Former-Clinton-Supporters.aspx 

this however is so blunt that makes me wonder if it would backfire. 

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James Bond:

Pom/KGBman - examples please  Real-world factual examples to convince me.  I'm open-minded.

 

what pps said, plus if you look at history of major USSR/USA agreements - they are mostly with republicans if you count after Roosevelt...

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- Независимость - это когда в 20-й раз наступаешь на одни и те же грабли, а русские уже ни при чем....

I was looking for examples in my lifetime. 

 Hey, This VP-lady Palin, is impressing me.  I take back what I said about her being a ditz.  I'm thinking if McCain dies of old age in 2009 that she might actually drive the Establishment absolutely crazy.  I would like that.

 

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"Hearts will never be practical until they can be made unbreakable."

I was looking for examples in my lifetime. 

 Hey, This VP-lady Palin, is impressing me.  I take back what I said about her being a ditz.  I'm thinking if McCain dies of old age in 2009 that she might actually drive the Establishment absolutely crazy.  I would like that.

 

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"Hearts will never be practical until they can be made unbreakable."